Dynamic population Analysis of the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake

Introduction

The Noto Peninsula Earthquake that occurred on January 1, 2024, was a major earthquake of magnitude 7 on the Japanese scale, followed by a tsunami that caused the collapse of buildings and devastating damage to transportation infrastructure. The disaster forced many residents to evacuate their homes and had a tremendous impact on the entire local community.

This article will introduce examples of real-time dynamic population data visualization and analysis tool “Kompreno®” used to analyze the number of people gathering at designated evacuation centers, undesignated evacuation centers, traffic data, isolated areas, etc. in the Noto Peninsula.

On January 2, 2024, the day after the Noto Peninsula earthquake, we used Kompreno®, a real-time dynamic population data visualization and analysis tool, to analyze the how people gathering at designated evaluation centers, detection of undesignated evacuation centers, traffic data, and isolated areas.

The analysis results are provided to the Japanese Red Cross Society in cooperation with the Japanese Red Cross Disaster Relief Research Institute (JRCR), which has concluded a “Cooperative Agreement on Building Disaster-Resilient Towns,The information was also provided to TMAT (Tokushukai Medical Assistance Team), which was used for specific relief activities, such as studying routes for initial response teams to enter the area, assessing the current status of isolated areas and undesignated evaluation centers at the disaster headquarters of affected municipalities, sharing information, and prioritizing visits to each designated evacuation centers.

We have analyzed the operation of evacuation centers from 16:10 on January 1, 2024 to 24:00 on January 1, 2024 after the earthquake struck (Figure 1).

It can be seen that people are gathering in many evacuation centers in real time.

Figure 1： Analysis of evacuation areas in Wajima City

Detection analysis of undesignated evacuation centers was conducted. As an example of detection in Wajima City, we can see people gathering at the Sosogi Tourist Center and a nearby pension (Figure 2). We identified more than 40 such undesignated evacuation centers.

Figure 2：Undesignated Evacuation Areas in Wajima City

The traffic data was analyzed (Figure 3) using dynamic population data from 16:00 on January 1, 2024 to 0:00 on January 2, 2024, after the earthquake.

By utilizing location data obtained from the application, the data reflected not only vehicular traffic but also foot traffic, and was used to select routes for initial response teams to enter the area, identify inaccessible sections, and so on.

Figure 3:：Analysis of traffic performance around Wajima City

We have released a video visualizing dynamic population data in the Noto Peninsula on January 1, 2024, the day of the earthquake, and on December 31, 2023, the day before.

You can see how the movement of people stagnates after the earthquake.

Based on the traffic data, an analysis (Figure 4) was conducted to identify isolated villages.

By identifying isolated villages based on the traffic data for both foot and vehicle traffic, the data was used by the disaster headquarters of the affected municipalities to understand the current situation and to select and prioritize destinations for the initial response teams on site to visit.

Figure 4: Analysis of isolated villages throughout the Noto Peninsula

The degree to which visitors (non-residents) were staying in the affected area on the day of the disaster was analyzed using “Papilio” (Figure 5). The results of this analysis were also used to examine the capacity of evacuation centers and relief supplies.

Figure 5：Analysis of residents and visitors within each city

Real-time dynamic population data visualization evacuation behavior in Suzu City immediately after the disaster was analyzed (Figure 6).

In fact, the figure shows people in the tsunami inundation area evacuating on foot to the ground of Iida Senior High School, which is located on designated high ground. By analyzing the evacuation behavior in the area of Suzu City where a large tsunami was observed after the earthquake, we can utilize this information for future disaster prevention planning.

Based on the results of the Noto Peninsula Earthquake, we will accelerate the introduction of the real-time human flow visualization and analysis tool to medical institutions and local governments, and deploy it as a technology that can be used not only for emergency preparedness but also for disaster prevention planning during normal times. Kompreno®” can also be used to analyze evacuation behavior during evacuation drills, and Nemuro City in Hokkaido and Kamaishi City in Iwate Prefecture have conducted large-scale evacuation drills using this tool. By combining the tool with evacuation drills, disaster prevention plans, disaster prevention education, and other peacetime applications, we will create an environment that can be analyzed promptly in the event of an emergency and accelerate the promotion of Disaster Prevention DX.

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